By Manisha Jha
This is similar to levels seen during the 2008-09 financial crisis and compares with a demand growth of 2.5% last year, Rabobank said in its quarterly report.
“We are now expecting demand growth to decelerate due to coronavirus-related lower out-of-home consumption and recession,” bank said
Bank expects demand growth in producing countries to be negative for the first time in at least three decades, as the shift towards at-home consumption will be less significant than in mature markets
Recovery in demand expected from the end of 2020 onwards
The main supply side from coronavirus is a potential shortage of migrant labor, especially during the arabica harvest in Brazil
“For now, we assume a normal harvest as there will be high demand for employment and the central government does not promote a strict lockdown”
Global coffee market surplus seen at 5.6m bags in 20-21 versus 1.6m bags in 2019-20