"July arabica coffee settled down 1.6 cents, or 1.4%, at $1.09 per lb.
"The immediate pressure in coffee is very much down to the real," said an analyst at a global trading firm. She said Brazil's crop was looking good, with few concerns for now about adverse weather or about coronavirus lockdowns hampering output.
A weak real raises the value of dollar-priced coffee exports in local currency terms.
"The current dry weather in Brazil is seen as positive to improve beans quality prior to the harvest kick-off," said a U.S. trader.
Rabobank said it expects Brazil will produce 67.5 million 60-kg bags of coffee in 2020/21, consisting of 18.5 million bags conillon and a record 49 million bags of arabica, with virtually all arabica areas producing at or near record levels.
July robusta coffee settled down $15, or 1.2%, at $1,186 a tonne."
From Reuters On 6 May :
"The global coffee supply balance is seen shifting from a deficit in the 2019-20 season to a surplus in 2020-21 as expected changes in people's behavior related to social distancing is seen hurting demand, commodity broker Marex Spectron said on Wednesday.
Marex expects the global balance to shift from a projected deficit of 4.3 million 60-kg bags in the current season to a surplus of 2 million bags in the 2020-21 season (October-September).
"Total consumption is forecast to decline during the lengthy 'monitor and adapt' phase, until a (coronavirus) vaccine is found," said Marex Spectron coffee analyst Steve Pollard in a report.
"End-consumers will de-stock, recession will hit disposable income and social distancing measures will make out-of-home less appealing to consumers," he said.
But the broker increased its estimate for the deficit in the current season, which ends in September, to 4.3 million bags from 3.2 million bags in February, as initial stockpiling by households and roasters boosted demand.
It estimates that around 95% of the out-of-home market for coffee is closed globally, saying that segment accounts for around 20% to 25% of consumption.
Marex expects demand for washed arabica to be hit hardest, since it is the type of coffee preferred by high-end coffee shops around the world. Demand for robusta coffee, widely used to make instant coffee, a product used mostly at home, is seen holding up."
Note: I checked the latest figures that Tango displayed (or at least the last one I kept): for Rabobank on February 5 it was 66400
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