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MS Futures Daily Commodity Notes: KC
Posted by Tango
on May 13, 2020, 8:54 am
Brazil outlook. Our US biotech team, led by Matthew Harrison, which just added Brazil to its Covid-19 daily, thinks the outbreak in the country is still in the early stages. According to the team's model, the total number of cases could reach ~600K vs. 168K currently. Further, our LatAm strategy team indicated in their weekly update that the number of tested people in Brazil (340K vs. population of ~210M) is low vs. other countries (e.g., the US has tested 9M people vs. population of ~330M), suggesting the reported cases might be underestimated so far. There are implications for Vale's Iron ore exports which our team are now tracking.