Note I was with long Futures on Sugar 11 but then this coronavirus forced me to exit what was a promising trend.
I attach a monthly and daily graph + COT 3y futures and options combined
Quote from Reuters: "Speculators reduced their net short position in raw sugar for the second consecutive week trimming 8996 contracts for a total short of 45763 contracts"
Any input from your side?
Quoted from Barchart - Cmdty Newswire (some information can apply to Coffee as well: situation in the port, forecast for lower estimate consumption etc.)
"In a bearish factor, Unica on Tuesday reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar production in the second half of April surged +93% y/y to 2.016 MT, with the percentage of cane used for sugar climbing to 45.76% in 2020/21 from 30.87% in 2019/20. Unica on Tuesday also reported that Brazil's sugarcane-based ethanol sales in April tumbled -32 y/y to 1.78 bln liters.
Sugar exporter Alta Mogiana said on Monday that Brazil's 2020/21 Center South sugar production will jump +37% y/y to 36.67 MMT as the recent plunge in ethanol prices spurs Brazil's sugar millers to divert 47% of cane juice to produce sugar, up from 34% in 2019/20.
Another negative factor for sugar prices was last Tuesday's forecast from Conab, Brazil's official government forecasting agency, that Brazil's 2020/21 sugar production will climb +18.5% y/y to 35.3 MMT as millers divert more cane juice to produce sugar as the outlook for ethanol has been decimated by the drop in consumption and prices. Conab projects Brazil's mills will divert 42.4% of cane juice to produce sugar in 2020/21, up from 34.9% in 2019/20.
Sugar prices continue to be undercut by concern about weaker sugar demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. Researcher Czarnikow on Thursday projected that global sugar consumption will fall 1% this season, the first decline in 40 years, because of lockdowns to stem the spread of the coronavirus. Marex Spectron on Tuesday said it expects 2020/21 global sugar consumption to fall by 2-5 MMT (1%-3%) due to the negative effects of Covid-19.
Sugar prices have support from reduced sugar production in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, after the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) reported last Friday that India Oct-Apr sugar output fell -20% y/y to 25.8 MMT."
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