The OI shows new vs, new. The buying is almost entirely commercial and, in the forwards, it is likely the consumer end. The selling is likely spec and mostly new. Today there is a great deal of activity in the forwards as bids are being hit as front selling continues. Spreads became weak as front selling and forward bids are linked by them. Nagual’s support area coincides with my own views, his based on technical analysis and mine based on market dynamics. I see this level as an opportunity not only because of the tremendous buying but because of the weather. We have assurances by Somar and WWI that there will be no damaging frost. It is early in the season however, and this coming cold front may be a prelude. For now the market has become quiet although still under pressure. Let’s see if 102.50 will hold. USDBRL is 5.6103 +0.0596 (+1.07%) and USDCOP is 3,786.30 +26.33 (+0.70%).

Next five days:
The cold front continues its advance and has already caused heavy rain in Paraná. Until the end of the day, rain reaches the Southeast and Saturday will also be a day of unstable weather in the production areas between Paraná, São Paulo and southern Minas. On Sunday, the weather dries and cools, but without the risk of frost in the coffee producing areas.

Extended:
The temperature declines, but there is no risk of frost on the coffee, as the lows will not drop below 4’C.


omg gif