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Analysis of Production/Consumption/Carryover Based on USDA
Posted by Tango
on June 15, 2020, 11:12 am
The following is an attempt to understand the relationship of consumption and production based on USDA research. We see world production shooting higher but not much different than ‘18’19. The % change of each since ‘14’15 is about the same, 12.55% and 12.207%, indicating that on average production is sufficient to satisfy consumption. Carryover stocks are higher for ‘20’21 but about the same as ‘14’15. Of course, we were experiencing a drought in Brazil at that time. The net change of consumption and production, plus carryover, is not much different than ‘18’19. Of course, the numbers for next year will be very important as they will reflect the impact of the pandemic.
Comments are welcome. Other observations, disagreements and corrections are also welcome.