The coffee market is still dislocated. I agreed with you there is no lack of coffee now for the roasters. Although it could be in the future. The USDA is overestimating figures for different Origins. But the point to understand the current momentum is not that. The Funds, what is doing is what matters. Some Funds need to cover their shorts until tomorrow, to show realized profits in their books and their CEOs receive their bonus, that will be very welcome for the 4th of July.
What will happen next? We don't know. If Funds don't take the long side the market can recede 10 points easily. We are in the lowest consumption period because of the summertime in the North Hemisphere. If you add the Covid 19 problem there is enough justification for a big market drop, however, I won't be very sure and I won't go short this market.
The US Stock market has reached a permanently high plateau. The FED with trillions of dollars is expanding its balance sheet to the infinite, inflating all the Asset in this Economy and the dollar could crash eventually and be ugly.
Welcome to "risk-on" again, my friend. Would you sell short this market when something in the weather could happen in this season, or when some Funds will start positioning in the long side in many commodities?