13 Jul 2020
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector cut their net short position within the market by 5.43% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 7th. July: to register a new net short sold position of 23,843 Lots which is the equivalent of 6,759,385 bags. This net short position has most likely been decreased, following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.
The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector of this market cut their net short sold position within the market by 1.39% over the week of trade leading up to Tuesday 7th. July; to register a short-sold position of 44,509 Lots.  This net short sold position is the equivalent of 7,418,167 bags and has most likely been further increased following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.
The analysts Safras & Mercado have estimated that almost 56% of the new Brazil coffee crop has already been harvested. This based on the Safras & Mercado forecast for a new crop of 68 million bags, the report would indicate that so far approximately 38 million bags of the new crop have been harvested. These coffees made up from approximately 15 million bags of conilon robusta coffees and approximately, 23 million bags of arabica coffees.
The Brazil harvest this year is at a slower pace, compared to the same week in 2019 when approximately 68% of the crop was harvested, although the size of this biennial bearing larger crop can be attributed to the slower harvest time this year. This week shall see the global coffee market players keeping a close eye upon the cold but not freezing weather that is forecast to hit the main arabica coffee districts of South East Brazil. Albeit that most forecasters while acknowledging the advancing cold front, speculate that it is unlikely to bring freezing temperatures or substantial levels of rain to most of the coffee farms.
The Vietnam Customs Authority have reported that Vietnamís coffee exports for the month of June are down by 2% from the previous month, to total 2,128,333 bags. This number proving to be slightly below the 2.33 million bags that had been initially forecast for the monthís coffee exports. The report also states that for the first six months of 2020, Vietnam coffee exports are 2.2% higher than the same period last year at a total of 15,684,283 bags.
The September to September contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday; to register this at 43.10 usc/Lb. This equates to 44.25% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 14,543 bags on Friday to register these stocks at 1,620,980 bags, with 93.1% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,509,366 bags and the remaining 6.9% being held in the USA at a total of 111,614 bags. There was meanwhile a smaller in number 1,225 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 24,808 bags.
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