In May 2020, Cecafé announced that Brazilian coffee production was going through a historic period with inventories practically zero in the main producing regions of the country. In a press conference held on Monday (13), the new projections indicated that the country will have to significantly increase coffee production in order to meet domestic and foreign demands in 2030.

Although the 2020/21 harvest is still being harvested and production is considered to be high cycle, Brazilian coffee exports continue at a positive pace and Cecafé believes that the next off-season is also tightening for Brazilian stocks.

"As we are working with low inventories and exporting a lot, I do not doubt that next year the situation will be of tightening for the off-season," said the president of Cecafé, Nelson Carvalhaes, during the presentation of the export figures for June 2020 on Monday.

>>> Coffee: Brazil exports 2.8 million bags in June and totals foreign exchange revenue of US $ 327.5 million

Crop Year 2019/2020

In the 2019/20 crop year (July 2019 to June 2020), Brazil exported a total of 40 million bags of coffee, considering the sum of exports of green, soluble and roasted & ground coffee, according to Cecafé's balance sheet - Council of Coffee Exporters in Brazil. The volume represents the second historical record for Brazilian coffee exports to the world and was i in the period and the highlight was the 22.7% growth in exports of robusta coffee, compared to the 2018/19 crop year. Foreign exchange revenue in the 2019/20 crop was US $ 5.1 billion, equivalent to R $ 22.8 billion, which represents an increase of 8.8% in reais compared to the previous period. The average price was US $ 128.04.

Among the varieties shipped from July 2019 to June 2020, arabica coffee represented 78.8% of exports, with the export of 31.5 million bags; the robust (conilon), 11.1% (4.4 million bags); and soluble, 10% (4 million bags).

“The export performance of crop year 2019/2020 was very positive and reflected the great efforts of the entire agribusiness chain to export Brazilian coffee efficiently, despite the challenges of the pandemic in the last four months and the low cycle presented in the harvest 2018/2019. The entire effort of the chain to adopt the necessary preventive care, guaranteeing the health and protection of all the professionals involved, has been successful and Brazil has exported to 125 destinations and also registered an increase in sales to producing countries. We are optimistic about the prospects for a good harvest in progress, both for Arabica and Conilon coffees that have so far been of very good quality, and confident that the world will be able to taste Brazilian coffee even more in the next coffee year. with quality,

Projections

Cecafé's figures also indicate that in order to meet domestic demand and exports, Brazil needs from now on to produce a minimum of 60 million bags of 60 kilos per harvest. The projection indicates that in addition to ensuring Brazil stands out in the market, large-scale production can also provide support to ensure that Brazil gains even more space in the international market. It is estimated by the market that coffee consumption has a minimum increase of 1% per year.

"If we keep exports at a level of 40 million, if domestic consumption was above 20 million, then we need more than 60 million. Today Brazil has a basic need of 60 and 63 million bags / year, adding exports and internal consumption, according to data from Abic and Cecafé ", highlights Nelson Carvalhaes.

Last week, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) released an increase in the estimate of crop production being harvested in Brazil. According to the latest data, Brazil is expected to produce 59 million 60 kg bags, an increase of 3.1% over the previous month's forecast. The volume projected for the harvest being harvested, if confirmed, should represent an increase of 18.2% in comparison with last season.

The long-term projections, for 10 years from now, indicate that if the country maintains the pace of exports, Brazil will need to produce even more to meet both demands. The figures indicate harvests with at least 72 million bags. "See the challenge that the largest coffee producer in the world faces, he will have to increase his production so that he can serve this market promptly", says Nelson Carvalhaes.


(Google translated from Portuguese)

Source: https://www.noticiasagricolas.com.br/noticias/cafe/263727-projecao-em-10-anos-brasil-tera-que-produzir-minimo-72-milhoes-de-sacas-de-cafe-para-atender-mercados.html#.Xw2lBCg2pPY