Blue Line = BRLUSD
The market began at the lows and closed at the highs to register a 3.80c rise and a range of 6.65c. Funds bought their shorts while every other sector sold, mostly as new shorts. The big story however is in Robusta. Funds there bought close to 17,000 lots, something they havenít done for quite some time.
Since the COT report, excluding Friday, the Sep OI has gone down in both markets, indicating continued short covering and long liquidation. Thereís lots of spread and CSO activity as DecMar and forward spreads are being supported by trade as ICE stocks drop. But, what happened to SepDec as it continues to fall even with the strong buying in Sep? Will DecMar experience the same fate? The trade doesnít seem to think so.
The market looked very good for the days following the COT. Funds are likely to continue buying but longs are providing plenty of pressure. With Robusta in the picture there could be more strength. Letís keep an eye on the Sep OI of both markets.
The $ has been weak and markets, especially gold and silver, are reacting. Corporate bailouts are good for the stock market but are useless for economies if people arenít working. The virus continues to grow mostly due to mismanagement and so economies will continue to falter. Ultimately, in coffee, fundamentals will rule but for now buying is present.
Posts in the forum have been plentiful and interesting. Please continue commenting. During these times of global isolationism, the forum is truly unique.