Copyright 2020 - CMA Group
Porto Alegre, August 21, 2020 - The coffee harvest of the 2020/21 Brazilian harvest, which should confirm record production, is heading towards the end. According to a weekly survey by SAFRAS & Mercado, the harvest was 94% until August 18th. In the previous week, the rate was 90%.
Based on the estimate of SAFRAS for coffee production in Brazil in 2020/21 of 68.1 million bags of 60 kilograms, it is pointed out that 63.8 million bags were harvested until the 18th.
The harvest has been delayed against last year since its beginning, and remains behind what was seen in 2019 in that period, when the works were in 98% of the harvest was harvested in this period. The jobs are slightly above the average of the last 5 years, which is 93%.
According to SAFRAS & Mercado consultant, Gil Barabach, the works reach the final stretch in Brazil and, in general, the climate continues to favor the progress of coffee harvesting and drying. “The rains forecast for this week in Paraná, São Paulo and in part of the south of Minas Gerais can hinder this final stretch, especially the drying of the coffee”, he warns.
In the case of arabica, the harvest reaches 91% of production, against 97% at the same time last year and 90% on average over the last 5 years. The work with conilon has already ended.
The recent rise in the dollar and also arabica on the New York Stock Exchange (ICE Futures US), despite all the volatility, testing resistance, offer support to coffee prices in the physical coffee market. "And the higher prices encourage salespeople," says Barabach. However, he indicates that logistical problems, typical of a large harvest, are beginning to emerge. “The crowded warehouses and lack of trucks, even inhibit some negotiations in the available. There are buyers asking for a deadline for receipt and preferring to negotiate with delivery in their warehouses. The impression that remains is that there are more sellers than buyers, which alleviates external stimulus ”, he comments.
The good drink from the South of Minas rose from R $ 585.00 to R $ 590.00 sack, with certified batches changing hands around R $ 600.00 a bag. Same level as Mogiana in São Paulo. Fine coffee from the Cerrado of Minas was indicated between R $ 605.00 to R $ 610.00 per bag. "A very attractive price level, which justifies the interest on the part of the seller", emphasizes the consultant.
The café rio rose to R $ 420.00 a bag in the Matas de Minas region, finding support in the little physical availability. Conilon type 7 from Espírito Santo was recommended at R $ 390.00 per bag in Vitória.
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