Only reasonable explanation is the 2019 crop was overestimated and the demand has held up with home consumption replacing retail outlet demand. For years we heard the best coffee consumer was the kitchen sink, well he’s back. I find it hard to believe Central America producers are holding coffee away from the market yet a year ago they were filling ice warehouses with prices under $1.00. Precip since March in coffee areas has been below normal, September is also setting up dry, October rains will be critical. This is also a biennial year. Technically coffee support at a $1.00 has been thoroughly tested.
WHAT? I can buy December 22 futures at 1.37, 5 cents premium to today and watch two coffee crops develop while demand grows 2% a year. I like those odds. MY Target
1.80- 2.00 If October rains come in on the low side.
Of course no crystal ball my opinion only!