Brazils government food supply and statistics agency CONAB have come forth to report that Brazilian Coffee producers due to positive biennial bearing factors for the arabica coffee farms are forecast to produce 61.62 million bags of coffee for the July 2020 to June 2021 crop year. This estimate has been revised upwards by 7.89% from their previous estimate of 57.15 million bags released in January this year. CONAB has projected that arabica coffee production is forecast to be 38.14% higher than last year at a total of 47.37 million bags, while Robusta Production is forecast to be 5% lower than last year at a total of 14.25 million bags. The CONAB forecasts are traditionally very conservative and many would therefore see this as an indication that the 2020 Brazil coffee crop is likely to have come in at around the 70 million bag mark that has already been forecast by independent industry surveys and is, with the harvest now complete, looking to be closer to reality.
The report also assesses that the land under coffee in Brazil increased by 1.4% during 2020 from the previous year, up to 2.16 million hectares, additionally indicating that farmers are utilising resources such as irrigation systems and mechanized harvesting, a combination that should improve yields through increased inputs and lower costs through mechanisation.
The November to December contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed yesterday; to register this at 49.83 usc/Lb.  This equates to 45.03% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.
The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 3,003 bags yesterday to register these stocks at 1,105,788 bags, with 93.60% of these certified stocks being held in Europe at a total of 1,035,300 bags and the remaining 6.40% being held in the USA at a total of 70,488 bags.  There was meanwhile a smaller in number 2,199 bags decrease to the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 5,761 bags.
The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to decrease by 7,500 bags over the weeks of trade leading up to Monday 21st. September, to see these stocks registered at 1,826,000 bags, on the day.
The London market ended the day with on a modest softer note with 26.47% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a likewise negative note with 55.55% of the earlier losses of the day intact.  This softer close does little to inspire confidence nor does it indicate direction, with both markets settling near to the lows of the day, one might think the markets are due for slightly better than a hesitant steady start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday, as follows:
LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT                                       NEW YORK ARABICA USc/Lb.
NOV   1341 6                                                                DEC    110.65 1.35
JAN    1357 5                                                               MAR   112.45 1.40
MAR   1371 4                                                                MAY   113.95 1.40
MAY   1385 3                                                                JUL    115.35 1.35
JUL     1400 2                                                               SEP    116.50 1.35
SEP    1416 Unch                                                             DEC   117.80 1.30
NOV   1433 + 3                                                               MAR   119.15 1.20
JAN    1450 + 5                                                               MAY   120.15 1.10
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