Coffee Traders Forum
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Posted by M
on September 30, 2020, 11:28 am
Strong bull and bear opinions . One of the few hard statistics we have for coffee is the Cecafe export report. The July 19 to June 20 Total Brazil coffee exports are 40.184 mln bags just under the record exports of the 2018 crop year of 41.4 mln bags. The USDA in their December 19 report forecast exports of 35.32 mln bags in The June report they raised it to 36.6 mln bags. Exports managed to exceed their expectations by 3.5 mln bags. I personally think this has major ramifications as far as the ending Brazil stocks numbers. Whether you believe that the 2019 crop was underestimated or we borrowed from this year’s harvest the fact is there are less bags of coffee than otherwise would have been the case with less exports. In addition the strong demand profile if it continues will require a reasonable biennial harvest which is not yet assured.