*COVID's second wave won't be as contagious and deadly as the first wave. The entire world is more prepared this time and there will no be a general lockdown any more. The world openness is going to continue and the Home consumption can peak up.
*Big companies certaily are laying off a lot of people but the stimulus package everywhere is underway, situation that can compensate and feedback ideas of inflationary expectations, which is good for the world of the COMMODITIES.
*Warehouses in Brazil are full coffee but that coffee is at least 60% sold and it is normal that has happened after all the logistic problem that country has had.
Finally IMO yesterday's good coffee perfomance could have been attributed to the neccesary profit-taking some funds did. Yesterday was the end of september and the end of 3rd quarter.
Today Funds started resuming their shorting activity. All the news were bearish and there were no follow through at the highs of the day.
What happened then? System tradings (STs)took off the market. Algorithms sold the market and no one stopped it down. By the way Brazilian currency was week too. So it's rather possible we had seen price fixation by that origin as well
But this is not the first time that happens in this market or at any other market I mean. STs tend to exaggerate the moves and either are responsible to weakened the market more or exaggerated the move up. In this case, IMO STs are governing the coffee C. Besides Brazil, I don't think not other Origins have done price fixation today. The coffee market still could come down more, we know that, but the situation is becoming very chaotic. At some point Funds will find themselves they are the only ones who are selling the market. then the market will revert.
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