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Re: Too early discounted?
If you look at the COT, funds are heavily long and barely sold anything as the market moved from 135 to 110. The gross long is underwater. There is barely any gross short. Spreads are weakening meaning if the longs hold they position and ultimately roll it they will loose even more.
Sure roaster will need to buy, but soon crops from Central America will be be harvested and in need to be hedged, offsetting one another.