The big difference between fall 2014 and today. The crop damage had already occurred and had been discounted by the high price. The market was hoping that additional difficulties could further fuel the rally. Those failed to materialize, in addition to the speculative liquidation, the real started its historic decline, and the crop damage was assessed as less severe, and Brazil had reserve coffee stocks of 10 mln bags. World coffee stocks were assessed at 40 mln bags before the Brazil drought with a demand profile of 143 mln bags.
Today the Brazil Arabica proDuction will trump all other factors in the market. How much damage has occurred and how much will occur all weather based. The market with time will assess it. Prices stand at $1.10 no crop loss or very little is built in. In my opinion the baseline for the biennial crop is 41 mln Arabica, 38-41 mln bags we will still require supporting factors to help prices get out of the trading range, ex. end of Covid reduced demand etc. 35 mln bags or less nothing else matters. Coffee is a resilient tree it takes a lot to get it in trouble it seems that we have managed to do that, what happens next is impossible to predict. For now coffee has my full attention.
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