During the COT period Funds were in selling mode I agree.
Friday was a short-covering, I agree too, but also was a REVERSAL and that could be the beggining of a major change. The market did lower lows and a higher close, coming out from a very oversold condition from Stochastic indicators as well from others.
Funds will not necessary to continue pressure the market down as you say.
The Brazilian coffee weather dryness persist and the accumulated figures as I see in the MajCoffee table show there is a drought already we cannot ignore.
I understand and agree with you Funds were ignoring the ideas of that situation as they have continued liquidating part of of their longs but I don't understand why they have to continue doing that so.
Marex Spectron came out on friday with an statement: "...Brazil's 2021 coffee output decline might be twice as much as usual in the lower-yielding half of a biennial cycle because of drought."
I didn't have that statement during the trading hours, however I'm sure they did and if not, the market will have discount it on Monday and then we could see the extension of this short covering rally, that could be the beginning of something more.
Finally, you say Funds are net long 34,804 lots, yes but that figure was until Tuesday. From Wednesday to Friday too much water has running out.
The Trading volume was steady, IMO Funds could easily stay around the 28k now or even less than that number.