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Re: Arabica and Robusta COT Report
Thank you. You are correct that the fundís long position is of Tuesday. Maybe after Friday they are down to 30k or so. Everything else is a matter of opinion. And you may be right but it is my observation that funds react only to price direction and news of any kind is already discounted and reflected in the then current prices. They are strictly technical. Index funds however would be motivated by news as well however. Fridayís activity could be the beginning of a reversal as you say but we saw the same behavior the Friday before. As I stated, we just have to see. Iíd like to disclose that I am long strangles but I certainly prefer the upside. At the same time, I let the market tell me what to do. For now it has not proven itself for a move upwards.
As to the dryness, it is just that dryness and not a drought. Dry conditions during harvest were beneficial. If this dryness continues until mid November then I will reconsider. Just my view.