I don't believe in extreme damage, but what i mean is that even if there was substantial damage, it will be very hard to assess in the short term. Once the rains starts to fall, pictures will start to look better, so I don't think the market can react to it later if the weather is improving (or if there is actual strong impact, will react much later when the 21/22 crop is harvest and market realises crop is much lower).
In weather markets, funds buy or sell reacting on forecasts or changes in the forecasts, which is not really the case these days. Market is probably much more influenced by the macro, currency movements and evolution of the spreads than by the Brazilian weather. Just my opinion.
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