1) I looked for analog years where production was reduced by drought.
2) I looked at precip deficits coming into September
3) I looked at September monthly rains
4) I looked at October monthly rains
5) I looked at September and October temperatures
6) in the best analogs I went day to day on precip to find the flowering date and then continued to see how many days elapsed before the follow up rains and what the temps and precip were.
I will repeat the conditions from this year are worse than what was experienced in 2002 and 1985.
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