Re: What moves KC price?
Coffee is always bearish! Since 1980 there have only been 5 Bull markets, 1985/94/97/2010/2014 the shortest 75 days the longest 175 days. Prices always retraced the advance. Contrary to most commodities we were never able to reprice coffee. $2.00 corn, $6.00 soybeans, 6cent sugar are all history but here we are still at $1.00 coffee. With less than 10 major coffee players having all the fire power against producers many in developing countries with very limited financial resources, and that kind of history being long coffee, is a fool’s errand. While coffee is a world market only a supply problem in Brazil will give you a Bull market. No major supply issue in Brazil, no bull market. And not just any supply issue it has to be in the magnitude that draws stocks down 7-9 mln bags. Otherwise nothing. Commercials play different origins and Robusta against Arabica to smooth imbalances as best they can and keep control of prices. Only a very abrupt supply shock that brings new money players, funds, large traders, levels the playing field. The stars have lined up that we have a chance at this scenario, sure we’ll still need a bit of luck. In case the fat pitch comes be ready to swing.
Message Thread | This response ↓|