ZH approaching -3.00 (-100/mo) and I would love some insight on the spread and anticipated movement. The roll is still about 2-3 weeks out, perhaps Tango has some insight. Late summer, the spreads were showing signs of life not seen in quite some time.
In terms of weather, the market at the moment is clearly not concerned but we always know how quickly that can turn. Maja predicting sizeable losses, though I am not sure how that is being quantified. I don't know if there was any impact from the dry, hot weather. What I do know is the market is lower by nearly 30 cents from the high made on September 4, 2020. Ouch!
It's always easy to look back and point to the a turning point, but the market never looked back from the 9 cent drop on September 14.
So what now? Well I leave that to the forum. I anticipate some good dialogue. My thoughts are that Nagual's lower fork support (10010), if reached, would be a good area to nibble on the long side. There may be some resting stops in the area of $1, but IMO, any sweep down from that level should be bought into. When weather is at play, markets get tricky, but at this point I think we are approaching a key area for the market. An area that has served as long term support for some time. For well over a year now I have held the belief that positioning higher when in the area of 1.05-.9500 (spot month) is a good strategy. To minimize the risk, option strategies are always available.
I will add, for those who have not read the post by "M", it's worth a read.
(Re: What moves KC price? - M Yesterday, 7:11 pm)
I enjoyed it.
As always, thanks to Tango, Nagual,and everyone else keeping the forum brewing day to day!
Good trading all.