Thank you for your prompt reply.
The thing is my circle of trust of sources of information and particularly of "the coffee traders” have narrowed too much.
I found Traders when they are negotiating with Origins lie a lot. They complain many times saying they are not making any business at current levels when certainly they do.
Other opportunities when Origins cannot ship, because they become short on physicals, traders easily obligated them to pay fees for the defaults and/ or washouts. And because of my connections, I could learn they could successfully replace those coffees for other origins at lower price differentials.
Many times, Origins are short in physicals like in Peru and the reality is that most of them do not have the tools or the knowledge on how to deal with that situation. Finally gave up paying the washout or the default fees with the trader when he did a good business replacing their coffees.
About the rest of your reports, I want to tell you I am pleased to have them and the opportunity to read them. They are very instructive in general and I learn from them too.
On your last one, I can tell you I totally agreed with your interpretation that commercials are buying, and Funds have become net sellers. And that is the trend now and now I am convinced we must observe very much what the first is doing because they have the power to obligate the Funds to reverse.
We will see… I insist the damage is already done and cannot be hidden. Sooner or later the truth will be unveiled. I think that will be soon, maybe with the last figures of accumulated rains in October that will come up in the beginning days of November.
« Back to index