ICE is the best Brazilian coffee buyer now.
Price Differential for Brazil is -15,-16. The exchange discount is just -6. It is a business from the exchange pay the freight and keeps at least 4 to 6 dollars.
My projection is that kind of arbitrage will not last long. The industry could start paying better diffs to Brazil anytime, more if Vietnam offering continues to get tighter. Robusta coffees from Vietnam can easily be replaced by Brazilian coffees that go to ICE (for solubles and others with low grading)
Coffee from Brazil will continue entering ICE through Antwerp port ur other.
The failing to grade would continue to be at a high rate as you may see.
But the amount of Brazil shouldn't be huge. That is why IMO those deliveries would not matter.
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