Brazil has had a great productive increase in the last 20 years due to starting to use the pruning technique. It's called Safra ZERO , zero harvest, because pruning is done in 2020, the coffee grows in the next 12 months, produces flowers, and is harvested the other year.
Pruning August / September of year 0, flower in year 1, and produces a lot in year 2. It is called skeleton, it looks like a skeleton, which is to cut the plagiotropic branches with approximately 30 centimeters from the orthotropic branch, including also decreasing the height of the orthotropic branch to 1.80 to 2.10 meters in height, so the branches will grow new and produce more . However this technique should be done as soon as possible, the harvest is over, do it immediately, so the plant has time to grow. Procafé recommends that the ideal is that the pruning is done until August 15, difficult, but it is ideal, so the plant can start to vegetate already in September, and when it arrives in the next year of September, after 12 months, the coffee tree it will have a long branch, which will produce many internodios, which will produce flowers, which will produce fruits to be harvested in year 2.
However the coffee trees in 2020 that were pruned, are not vegetating due to lack of water in the soil, drought, the soil is with water deficit, if you don't believe it, get your butt off the chair and come and see the reality.
So until November 11, the coffee plants that are under water deficit did not grow, regardless of the season they were pruned.
If there is no branch growth so far, logically when the rain returns, they started to grow, but time has been lost, the branches will grow, but in a smaller size, in a shorter length.
In this way, the production of 2022 will be lower than if there had been rains.
So understand that Arabica coffee production in 2022 will be lower than it was in 2020. How much I still don't know, but less.
That is why I tell you that this drought with very high temperatures that the South of Minas, Mogiana and Parana are going through is very serious.
With Brazil's huge production deficit in 2021, there will also be less production in 2022. Understand this and try to research, as there are no stocks of past harvests in Brazil, the coffee that exists is only that of the 2020 harvest, and the balance that remains in the hands of the producers will be sold little by little, as the producer knows that he will reap very little coffee in 2021 and production in 2022 is also compromised.