I did just respond to the Orange Juice thread but I couldn't leave w/out commenting on coffee. The market, in my opinion, remains in a trade-able range. The levels of support continue to be respected, particularly when the spot month approaches the $1 level. With KCH21 now in focus, the 10500 level proved to be very supportive. I would continue to look at long strategies if the market returns to those levels. The recent low of 10485 will likely be a target for stops, but the commercial buying that we see emerge at those levels will likely continue to cushion any heavy pressure.
I will leave the fundamental analysis to those more engaged in the market. From a purely technical perspective, I think the medium term risk reward is higher. In the very near term, I think a push back through 11325-11350 should trigger some buying. Keep in mind, the one month high is 11425. It was just a month before that when the market was above 1.30 and had the feeling of a potentially going on a run. As I pointed out a few weeks back, the break lower on September 14 set the tone for the impressive down move we saw over the last 2 months. Since that time, we have had sideways/choppy action, without any real sustainable action above 11400. Would be curious to see how the market reacts to a close above 11500.
As for MAJACoffee. I always enjoyed Marco's postings. He clearly had a bias, and if you were reading a post from MAJA, you knew it would have a bullish slant. Unfortunately, as it became necessary to defend some of his thoughts, it seems as though he completely lost sight of what he was sharing. For many years, we heard the same story. It was always the end of the crop and the market would soon see. Yet each time, this was not the case. As I've always said, it's nice to get various view points, especially from those with boots on the ground. However, it is a disservice to all involved when post after post of unsubstantiated comments become a distraction to the legitimate posts that get lost in the mix. I hope MAJA can one day return to the forum. I also hope he will realize the market will get it right because in the end the numbers won't lie. This forum is an excellent outlet to exchange ideas and market opinions. It will not however, succeed in influencing the market under false pretenses. Is it nice to be out in front of some market changing data, of course. Still, as I said many times over the years, you don't need to be the first one on the train to enjoy the ride. Remember, many eyes are on this site, and the goal is to add value, not create more uncertainty.
Gold is another interesting market. Like KC, I like the idea of positioning to the long side as the market dips and trades into meaningful support areas. The $1,850 level for GCZ20 remains pivotal. Some pressure last week lead to some stops below that level, but the market responded well and bounced back. Now, currently, around $45 higher. My guess is the next time down could result in a stronger attempt to push below $1,850. GC is quite fluid, so watch for any selling pressure to exhaust and again consider the long side. Ultimately, the $1,800-1,774 level would be ideal, IMO, to position for higher prices. Not sure we get that low, but worth keeping it on the radar.
That's all for now.