South Minas Gerais:
In South Minas we expect a 15-20% fall in the crop volume, compared to crop 20/21. This is due to the high volume yield from crop 20/21, along with a water deficit in the region. South Minas is in a slightly better situation than other regions, as there was good rainfall which helped the fixation of the flowers during the first and second flowerings.
We are now at an important moment for our assessment of the crop 21/22, as we enter the bean development period. Rain is forecast for the coming days, which will increase the water content of the soil and in turn help to contribute to a good bean development.
This is the region with the largest expected fall in volume, having experienced an extended water deficit after the last harvest. The plants were already depleted by the harvest and, due to these aforementioned conditions, were unable to recover, losing large parts of their leaves. This period of high temperatures and dryness lasted through until early October, when we saw hailstorms in some areas. Due to this poor state of the plants, many producers decided to prune in order to revitalise the plants for production in crop 22/23. Due to this combination of climate, pruning and the stress on plants caused by last crop’s high production, we believe that we will see at least a 30% drop in volume.
The situation in Cerrado is similar across most areas and towns where our suppliers are based. In the first flowering, we saw limited amounts of rainfall. However, these rains were sufficient to induce a good fixation of the flowers. We saw a similar scenario for the second (main) flowering, with good fixation occurring. In Cerrado, a large proportion of the producers have irrigation systems, which helps to reduce the impacts of water deficit.
We expect to see a fall in volume of around 17% in the Cerrado region for crop 21/22. Some producers who do not have irrigation may see a larger fall in volume, however the situation is still not as severe as in Alta Mogiana
We see a forecast for rains across these coffee regions over the coming days. The precipitation comes at an ideal time, with the plants needing water as they enter the stage of bean development. We will continue to monitor the situation and keep you updated.
« Back to index