Though not nearly as dry as Oct (~40% of norm), Nov (headed for ~80% of norm) is still looking to end up a good bit drier than normal in 4 of the 7 locations I follow. If I assume 10 more mm of rainfall to end the month, this is what I get as a % of Nov normal:
Cape Verde 73%
Monte Santo 94%
So, the four bolded locations are hurting this month vs normal during a time they could really use the rainfall. These 4 were also the driest of the 7 in Oct. So, they're really hurting for rain. The other 3 have done adequately well this month with near normal rains and weren't as dry in Oct as the other 4. Thus, these 3 are likely not as bad off as the other 4.
Also, though not looking nearly as hot as it was in late Sep/early Oct with the record heat, it is still looking to be notably hot again for 11/27-12/3 in many of these locations before good rains return in Dec, which models are also showing.
We know that the ceiling on how big the 21-22 crop can end up being has been cut substantially even though we don't know how much. But here's an important question, which I'd like answered as objectively as possible (without either a bullish or bearish bias):
How much difference in the 21-2 crop would very good rains in December and beyond make keeping in mind that good rains look to return in early Dec? Are these rains too late or not? Please keep it civil. Thanks in advance.
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