The June and July lows seem to be major and the lows seen earlier this month again proved to be pivotal. From here the market feels poised to move higher. And pullbacks likely find good support at the some of the key areas of the last 2 weeks (11600, 11280-11200).
I do agree with some of the more bullish views that have been emerging. I watched the Hackett podcast shared by A. I think it is worth watching for all.
Looking at Tango's COT report I see some mixed signs. I agree, the "number of traders" seems a bit confusing. I am not surprised by the large trader "shorts" reducing their position as that likely occurred on the rise to 12440. As they covered, commercial longs were shedding nearly 4,800 contracts. As for the overall change in traders, I can't (so I won't) venture a guess on what took place. I generally agree with Tango in that the market will likely need a wider cast of buyers in order to have a significant push higher. At the same time I will add, I will be important to see the behavior of the shorts. Will we see any significant change in behavior from the commercials / funds if we begin to break out higher?
On a daily chart, we have a trend-line just overhead. IMO, closing above this level, could help propel this market to a new 52 week high. Currently, the TL comes in around 13085-13100 ballpark.
Nagual has daily pitchfork resistance ~12610. I think we could have choppy trade up through that level. 50% retrace from 11560-12480 comes in 12020. I would like to see a dip into that area, though not sure it happens. Coincides with Nagual's support.
Other key support level 11910, particularly important in the near term.
Welcome back Alberto! Would love to hear some more thoughts on the conditions down in Central America. 2020 has had a bit of everything, including adverse weather conditions around much of the coffee crop around the globe. Likely a catalyst for higher prices if some of the chatter proves to be reliable.
OT- GOLD is within the key support range I have mentioned several times in recent weeks/months. In my opinion, time to conservatively begin to put together strategies to capture some upside movement.
Good trading all.