In 1985 I was in the Cerrado, Sul de Minas, mogiana and sao paulo/parana border.
The damage this year is harsher and more extensive. Sep thru Nov rainfall was less this year and the heat greater. Moreover trees are planted denser now than then. Not only 21/22 is in dire trouble but even 22/23 has been compromised by lack of vegetative growth. The trees are trying to save themselves at this point thus shedding flowers, chumbinhos and even cherries that have over ripened. Millions of trees showing great lush green leaves whose flowers have come and gone already. Must shoud have been pruned already. They aren't coming back no matter how much rain we get forward. All the rain will do will give the tree a better chance to save itself. As Mr. Otto said, after more than 60 years intimately involved with the trees he's never seen a worse drought. On top of this, Brazil has sold a chunk of this coming crop forward due to the futures premium and favorable currency curve. These sold coffees are ALL priced ie. short futures against ALL them. A perfect storm is gathering. The complacency in the consuming countries is astounding.
Very Truly Yours,
Admiral