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Re: Bloomberg: Production Estimate From a Group of Sources
Hi all, I try to pay attention to the forum now and again and have taken good information from here in the past without actively posting. Id just like to share my 2 cents. I think antifreeze is directionally right that the crop is over 70, and you can deduce this from the pace of exports. 73 seems aggressive but 70-71 seems right. That or brazilian domestic demand is so weak they're shipping a higher percentage. I think however that we would have traded in the 80s this fall if that were the only story. I suspect global demand is a bit better than some think judging from GCA inventories and most importantly the 21/22 crop is a disaster. Ecom and volcafe are good at crop estimates in my experience and neither has hesitated to put up bearish numbers in the past. I also respect Judy Gaines. I think net of it all were looking at shifting from a 6-8 mm bag global surplus to a 10+ mm bag deficit and this is not fully priced at 120.
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