According to experts, the year 2021 is considered a negative biennial: since past production was high, this automatically becomes low. According to agronomist José Braz Matiello, the bienniality of coffee production is a very striking phenomenon in Brazilian coffee growing. It results in significant differentials in fruit production and harvested crops. The bienniality, or productive differential, each year can occur between plots of crops, between plants of the same crop and, even within the plant itself, part producing well in one year and the other in the following year.
Therefore, the coffee tree must produce 20% less compared to the previous year that had a full harvest. The lasting drought in 2020 hindered the flowering and the subsequent filling of the grains. These factors can help the price of the bag to stay above R $ 600.
According to experts, it is not only the decrease in the harvest that can impact the good remuneration of the bag. Other factors such as the pandemic, the appreciation or devaluation of the dollar and the improvement of the quality of the crop also influence when the price is given by the market.
But, by the logic of the economy, a decrease in supply without a change in the market would cause prices to rise. “Regarding prices, there is a tendency for coffee to appreciate because there is an expectation of a very low harvest in 2021, with significant falls. But it is still very difficult to say anything, ”said Archimedes Coli Neto, president of the Coffee Trade Center of the State of Minas Gerais (CCCMG), in an interview with G1 Sul de Minas.
For the marketing and coffee market specialist, Paulo Henrique Leme, who is also a professor at the Federal University of Lavras (Ufla), coffee production and consumption have been very fair in recent years. "This influences the price of coffee to continue to be remunerative for the producer," he said.
Pandemic and dollar
The pandemic has still caused closings in Europe's trade. Archimedes explains that actions of this type can influence the external demand for coffee. “This impact of Covid-19 in 2020 and 2021 should still have a slight influence on demand, on inventories. But if consumption returns outside the home, we may have a large deficit in the product balance ”, he bets.
Another factor that influenced the good price of commodities in general was the increase in the dollar. According to Archimedes, this scenario may change if the real is more valued against the US currency. “If you have more dollars in the market, with the victory of Biden, for example, the real may appreciate against a devaluation of the dollar. This can lead to an adjustment in the value of commodities ”, he said.
For Paulo Henrique, the crop failure should vary between 25 and 40%. But everything will depend on the filling of the grains during the January rains. “In general, what we are expecting for 2021 is a good fall in the harvest. The drought last year hindered the flowering. We are also going to have a La Niña this year that is going to hinder a lot with below average rainfall ”, noted the professor.
“The expectation in the market is that the drop in Arabica coffee is significant due to the large production in 2020. And we still had a drought that hindered flowering a lot. And among the crops that bloomed there was a lot of abortion. The rains really delayed a lot and this affected the production of 2021 even more ”, evaluated Archimedes.
Paulo Henrique highlighted another factor that can interfere in production: investments. “Many producers took advantage of the moment and made investments in farming and machinery. The expectation, therefore, is to increase the global quality of coffee, increase in productivity. The producer who managed to take advantage of this price moment to capitalize and make investments in the crop, should reap the rewards in the next three to four years now ”, he believes.
Experts guarantee that the essentials for 2021 will be the filling of the grains at the beginning of the year. “Therefore, it is necessary that the rains are abundant in January and February. Only after that, can the 2021 harvest really be considered ”, said Paulo Henrique.
The National Supply Company (Conab) reported that on January 21, the first survey on the 2021 coffee crop will be released.
« Back to index