Charts are easy to read after the fact, but not before. When I look at this, I see a clear breakout from a long term downtrend line. I also see a descending triangle/flag type formation on the bar chart ready to break out to the upside and eventually close the open gap at $2.10. If you look at a line chart, the same formation becomes ascending.

The shortfall in the 21/22 important Arabica crops is not currently priced in the market. Nor are a potential bottom in the Real and the impact of climate change in all the important Arabica producing countries. These dynamics could break from the past and mutate into multi-year bull markets. Commodities as an asset class don't get much attention these days, but the trend has changed and become quite robust. Soybeans are a good example.

Might want to avoid trying to trade this breakout and maintain a core position. When the bull is out of the barn, watch out. Could be sooner rather than later. Once it breaks loose, the technical tools and COT won't be of much help. That is when riding the bull will require traders to hang on.

The risk adverse could also look at the JO ETN, but it lacks the leverage of futures.