Coffee tocks are adequate and while there is no shortage today, Brazilís 21/22 Arabica shortfall is not currently priced into the market.
In my many decades of coffee involvement, have always believed the true power of the inelastic demand monster has never been fully recognized. Like many other statistics, the trade data is not decisive information. It is simply a starting point for analysis.
The demand monster won't rear its head until stocks are drawn down and we have a production shortfall. Dynamics that should take place later this year and why the potential for a blow off exists.
If global weather patterns are really changing in key producing areas like Nam, Colombia, Honduras and Brazil, watch out because the demand monster must be fed. There is no substitute for coffee.
In terms of real data, the world's biggest retail coffee merchants privately note that they are pleased with their recent sales, new product campaigns and have been surprised by the increased uptake of the non-retail channel.
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