MexicoJack , your answer is almost certain. For the year/ crop of 2021/22 of Brazil , in which there will be a deficit of approximately 25 million bags of arabicas , a small part will be replaced by conilon of Brazil . And the rest of where the supply will turn . As far as I know, almost all the producing countries will have slightly smaller productions, due to lack of incentive to produce and also to small climatic problems of excessive rain and hurricanes. Thus, in the absence of stocks at the origins, except for Brazil's production surplus of 2020/21 , the large part of the deficit should be covered by the use of stocks in importing countries. Then it will be an atypical period, we will see the world zero its stocks.