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Re: Correct, But Timing & Accuracy of the 21/22 Arabica Crop Forecast Still Looming
I think Tango's point that everything is priced into the market is an interesting one. Personally I don't believe it as I think coffee is one of the least efficient commodity markets out there. My question to those on the forum goes back to September and October...price went down everyday as the weather situation became more dire. We can argue about extent of damage done but damage was most certainly done. Any other year and coffee would have gone up 20-50 cents in that time period....so why not 2020? Weakening demand from covid? 2020 brazil crop too big? Or brazilian certs structurally changed the contract? Personally I don't believe brazilian certs changed the price function. I believe the starting price in August was too high for a 70 million bag brazilian crop and the 2nd wave of covid weakened demand, and that left us at too low a price for a near disastrous new crop and now we are feeling the tension between a big surplus and an even bigger mounting deficit. But I have more questions than answers.