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Re: Correct, But Timing & Accuracy of the 21/22 Arabica Crop Forecast Still Looming
Thanks Cafe. Grading semi washed is something that has not been done before so it is impossible for me to say if it should change the historic price function for the contract. I can only say I don't think it should but I hold no opinion in absolute...as when I do I lose money. But thematically we should and need to see a greater than seasonal build in stocks at origin due to the sheer size of this years crop and to buffer against an arabica crop this year that I personally believe will be 28-35 mm bags. Visible draws should be huge in the 2nd half. Question is...if all that is right (and something will change in that time) is the markets function to price it in now or kick the can down the road until it hits. It is a futures market, not a "present " market so i think it should be sooner rather than later.