I mostly agree with Kannan, I haven't seen a valid (number-proven) indication of increased consumption. I rather see some subjective assumptions that can be characterized as mere wishful thinking.
It is good not to forget that coffee is so called luxury good (or upmarket good), for which demand increases more than proportionally as income rises. From the worlds GDP it seems that households income did not rise in 2020 (*maybe except China).
Moreover, what I see are struggling coffee shops due to lockdowns and social distancing.
On the supply side, there is the huge crop of the previous year(s), and, IMO, a great deal of invisible stock throughout the global supply chain.
Regarding crop numbers:
The latest median estimation for coming crop is approx. at 19/20 levels, and what was the price of that following year?
If I am not mistaken, the price levels subsequent to the 19/20 Brazil crop, were 85-105 USD. So, where exactly is the pressure for prices above 120 coming from?
My take is that right now it is speculative money coming from overheated stock market to commodity market.
I wonder if the commodity bubble will grow on coffee as well or it gets busted by the specifics of the coffee market (generally market being greatly at mercy of the buyer side).
either the Brazil is important for global supply or it isn't.
If it is, the median expectation is not a big deal right now, just normal biennial yield.
If it isn't, why worrying about Brazil crop that much? Consumption would be the key indicator.
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