You can drive yourself nuts with all the data, none of it which is truly accurate. That is why charting is so important. Anyway, keep in mind that long term bear markets end with record stocks that turn into record deficits within one year. That is how they end. I think KC will be the same, assuming the 21/22 Arabica crop really is down 30-50%.

Remember, while Brazil's Robusta crop will be up, Nam, Central America and Colombia's mid crop will also all be down. Not trying to be cute, but there really is an inelastic demand consumption monster lurking under the coffee market. He has been hiding, but he is there. I could give up many vices, but not coffee. Like the rest of the world, got to have it. Price rationing won't shut down the demand. Personally, I think we could be looking at years of deficits.