Come on.. these are data from "informed observers" you mentioned before, Jack.
That 17 million bags is the invisible cushion stock in the supply chain.

Sorry, but nobody of you provided any explanation or relevant argument/data, just your theories as usual. I keep hearing about low harvest in Brazil for like 5th year in a row now.
Broken clock are right exactly twice a day, so, maybe there will be some decrease this year, but nobody really knows anything, right?

The basic fundament of this market, IMO, is that buyers keep their stock reasonably replenished to have the luxury of time and leverage to negotiate prices down, while the small producers are forced to keep selling involuntarily to get some cash shortly after harvest.
There is only this much coffee that can be consumed every day, but there is much more soil where coffee can be and in fact is grown these days.
But time will tell.