I fully agree that data in coffee-world is fraught with issues. I fully well know all my assumptions will be wrong one way or another. However this is the first time since 2014 that were talking about a major deficit. If the data is even close to right we haven't meaningfully built global stocks in 5 years. Price has gone down primarily because of a massive depreciation in the reais which has kept brazil exporting like crazy and consuming stocks plentiful at the expense of origin. As such were much closer to a very steep price appreciation than the market realizes. Im not trading for that today as I think 120-150 will be a fair price until more is known about demand and whether the brl is still in a depreciation phase or in early innings of a multi year appreciation but the tail that coffee goes to 2.00 is very fat in my opinion.