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Re: Carry Over end of 2020 by USDA - adjusted
Total global use per USDA in 2018/2019 including the world trade residual was 170.4 MM bags. In 2019/2020 it was the exact same. Per USDA's forecast it is 170.8 MM bags. So USDA is assuming demand has stagnated for 3 years. They already have weak demand in their forecast for a 5 MM bag build. Could it be worse? Sure. Could it be better sure? But it's in the numbers. Trend demand would be 175 MM bags. Looking at prior years where demand stagnated over 3 year periods (2002-2004), and (2006-2008), in the following year demand jumped by 6 MM bags or 5% in 2005, and 12 MM bags or 9% in 2009.