As to coffee that is available, we have some insisting that we will have a shortfall and that this realization has not yet come to fruition. Then there is the camp that says there is a great deal of coffee to cover any shortfall plus. I, of course, feel that every condition is manifested in the market. I donít see any consumer sector buying in forwards, I see Brazilian stocks filling the warehouses and I see spreads generally weak, even during strength in futures. ICE stocks could be being used for financing purposes but this is a longer term commitment if loans are even appealing to banks presently.
As far as covid and consumption goes, there are valid arguments on both sides. Personally, I think the supply chain has been affected in some countries more than others. But I think that internet and super market demand has increased while coffee shop activity has greatly decreased. Vaccines will certainly rectify the covid issue.
To the consumer point Iíd like to say that I have been regularly buying my coffee from a forum contributor, Jack Scoville, who sells me Alfís coffee from time to time. Really good.
ULTIMATELY, all the data that is calculated means less than what is released to mainstream outlets. The market has the final say and today it is telling us that here are moments of both strength and weakness. Prices are looking to establish a direction one way or another.