The Association of Coffee Growers of Brazil has been following the drought since August 2020, the first reports on the accumulated rains between March and August already pointed to a large deviation of rainfall in Southern Minas and Mogiana. So, we at the association started an intensive monitoring in the main 4 regions of arabica coffees, Sul de Minas, Mogiana, Cerrado and Zona da Mata, in several cities and crops, day after day. So we are following and studying the phenomenon since the beginning of September 2020. In the beginning of October we alerted the Ministry of Agriculture about the occurrence of great drought in the South of Minas and Mogiana. Our current conclusion is quite pessimistic about the arabica production in 2021 and we believe in a forecast of 21 and 25 million bags of arabica.