I understood your calculations as suggestion that there will be substantial carry over in either of the scenarios.
My comment regarding probability was aimed at the other members of the forum who seem to think that any guestimate is equally relevant.
Now, we shall wait for some trustworthy reports about field situation in Brazil / South America.
From what I found about recent weather, there is significant effect El Nino this year. ("Across Brazil, central crop areas have only isolated moderate to heavy rain. Crop health is mixed for corn and soybeans. Southern areas have more widespread crop health issues due to dryness, notably in Rio Grande do Sul. ...the influence of La Nina has a strong likelihood to loom over the balance of the South America 2010-21 crop season."
There seem to be reasonable worries about a damage due to Nov/Dec drought, but weather radar and forecasts show rains in January, so it doesn't look too bad to me. But that is really just feeling.
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