Clearly, market participants are aware of the risk of a low crop this year and have factored that risk into the price. It does seem like we're waiting for something to happen. The things that could happen, whether confirmation of a disastrous Arabica harvest, a rise in the Real, or improved demand post Covid-19, seem quite bullish.
The bear market has gone on for so long, there is a lot of institutional bias in favor of it continuing, and maybe that is preventing a bigger rally?
I'm not sure what could happen to cause the bear market to resume. The harvest turns out to be not so bad? Covid-19 goes on and on and gets worse? The Real tumbles. Things things are possible, but to my mind at least a little less likely than the opposite.
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