The first estimate of the harvest of Cafés do Brasil for the year 2021 established that the total coffee production should be in the range of 43.8 million bags to 49.5 million bags of 60 kg, which indicates a reduction of 21 , 4% to 30.5%, compared to the volume harvested in 2020. This year, the coffee crop will come from a production area of ​​1.76 million hectares, which represents the smallest harvested area of ​​coffee in recent years 20 years. In addition, the area in formation is 431.9 thousand hectares, which totals 2.19 million hectares cultivated with coffee in Brazil.
Regarding the Arabica coffee harvest exclusively, the estimated production for 2021 comprises the range of 29.7 million to 32.9 million bags, which indicates a reduction of 32.4% to 39.1% in comparison with the 2020 harvest. Regarding coffee of the conilon species, the estimated production was in the range of 14.1 million to 16.6 million bags, which may show a reduction of up to 1.2% or an increase of up to 16%, compared to the past harvest.
Thus, it is worth noting that the midpoint between the lower and upper limits of Arabica coffee production, in this year 2021, was estimated at 31.35 million bags, and, in the case of Conilon coffee, the midpoint of the harvest indicates volume of 15.37 million bags produced. The sum of the production volumes of the two coffee species totals 46.72 million bags, which makes up the midpoint of the mentioned range of 43.8 million bags to 49.5 million bags foreseen for the Brazilian harvest this year. Thus, considering the midpoints of the estimates, it appears that the production of Arabica coffee should be responsible for approximately 67% of the total harvest of Cafés do Brasil and, in addition, the production of Conilon coffee should represent around 33% , that is, 1/3 of that total.
The statistical data that allowed this analysis of the coffee harvest estimate of 2021 to be carried out were obtained from the 1st Survey of the Coffee Crop of 2021, from the National Supply Company - Conab, which is available in full at the Observatório do Café do Consórcio Pesquisa Café, coordinated by Embrapa Café, and also in the Safra Brasileira de Café section, on the Conab website.
In this context, the referred Survey presents the initial estimate of the national average coffee productivity in a range of 24.97 bags per hectare to 28.24 bags per hectare, with a forecast of reduction of 15.7% to 25.4% in comparison with the productivity of 2020, which was 33.48 bags per hectare. According to Conab, this reduction in productivity can be attributed to the negative bienniality, a phenomenon that alternates lower production in a harvest with a higher one in the following year, notably in Arabica coffee, and also to climatic adversities registered in some producing regions.
Regarding this year's average productivity, in the case of arabica coffee, the range of 21.52 bags per hectare to 23.89 bags per hectare was estimated, with a decrease of 25.8% to 33.1% compared to productivity 2020, which was 32.18 bags per hectare of Arabica coffee. In the case of conilon coffee, the average productivity for this harvest is estimated in the range of 37.68 bags per hectare to 44.25 bags per hectare, with a reduction of up to 2.8% or an increase of up to 14.1% in relation to the average productivity of this species last year, which was 38.78 bags per hectare.
Crop 2020 - It should be noted that in the 2020 crop, the volume of coffee produced reached 63.07 million bags and was the Brazilian crop with the highest volume in history, with an average productivity of 33.5 bags per hectare, as also disclosed by the Coffee Observatory.
Monitoring of the Brazilian Coffee Crop - Since 2001, Conab has been monitoring the Brazilian coffee crop with four surveys of the coffee crop annually. The First Survey, object of this analysis, is released in January 2021, presents the first estimates for the national coffee crop. The second survey is scheduled for May 2021, to be released in the same month. This is an important period, as the harvest started in the main producing regions. The third survey is expected to take place in August 2021 and will be released in September of the same year. At the time of the survey, the harvest should already be in the final stage of execution, according to the usual agricultural calendar of the crop. And finally, the fourth survey,
« Back to index