Good question, for which I do not know the answer. It would be interesting if anyone has done a thorough study of the historical relationship between carryover and price.

There are limits to how long coffee can be stored (without freezing it) because it loses potency over time and becomes undrinkable, so I have a natural inclination to discount, at least a little bit, the impact of carryover. It's more of a gut feeling, not something I can substantiate.