These certified coffees, in my opinion, are stocks transferred to Europe, they are being financed by very low interest and their owners know that at some point Brazil will abruptly decrease its exports.
So they will not be deliverable in the contract, they will be sold in the spot market with excellent prices.
So far the importing markets are very well supplied, from October to December 2020, world exports/imports were 6.1% higher, but they were higher because Brazil exports 3.42 million more bags in this period and other origins export less coffee.
Now Brazil will start to gradually decrease its exports due to the enormous drought that occurred between March and November 2020 in the main coffee producing regions and not to forget the infernal heat that occurred between September and November . The other origins are ready to replace Brazil ? Another thing to note, Brazil has exported to many new markets, for example, in the year 2020 was exported 3.2 million bags to producing countries. So I invite you to study more deeply Brazil and its implications.
Brazil , ICE certified coffee and exports to producing countries .
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